ArcaMax

Still believe Camaro has a chance? Six months ago, I wrote about the iffy prospects of GM's attempt to revive its muscle car franchise. I argued that the combination of an economic downturn and a public turning away from gas guzzling V-8s would likely prove lethal to the fortunes of Camaro - a "Joe Sixpack" machine whose success depends on there being enough middle and working class horsepower junkies out there willing to buy it in large enough numbers to justify GM's investment in tooling, production and so on.

GM's looming bankruptcy - or the equally embarrassing taxpayer-funded bailout that seems likely - is the automotive equivalent of pancreatic cancer. Camaro's already a goner - before the first of them even make it to dealerships this spring. If any make it to dealerships this spring.

No matter what happens - bankruptcy or bailout - GM is going to have to tighten its belt and trim its sails. There will be no room for any car that doesn't add to the bottom line. In other words, which sells. On its own. Without giveaway incentives or subsidies. In large enough numbers to make producing it worthwhile.

By this standard, even the vaunted Corvette doesn't cut the mustard. It is what's known in the biz as a "halo" car - meaning it earns its keep by burnishing the image of the brand (Chevy), which (in theory) translates into higher overall sales even if the Corvette, itself, is a net money loser.

So, how likely is it that Camaro - which lacks the Corvette's small but devoted buyer base and unbroken record of continuous production that dates back all the way to 1954 - and more to the point, isn't an exotic sports car that GM can use to showcase its latest, cutting-edge technology - can last when the bean counters get down to the nitty gritty? What does Camaro add to GM's balance sheet - except the prospect of yet another money-loser?

Camaro is way cool, but so is my 455 Trans-Am from the '70s. That doesn't mean either car is viable in today's marketplace.

Look, I love three-inch chambered exhaust pipes, hood scoops and whale tails as much as anyone. To those who want to slam me as a Prius-snuggling hostile to internal combustion greenie-weenie who simply wishes cars like Camaro ill, re-read the above. I own a muscle car even more obnoxious than the pending Camaro. And I have owned not one, not two but three Camaros, also. Okay?

The fact that I (or you) love cars like these is immaterial to the question, do they make business sense given today's market realities? And the obvious answer, of course, is no.

V-8 gas guzzler are radioactive. Coupes are a hard sell even in good times. And we are most definitely not living in good times.

Consumer confidence has fallen off a cliff. People aren't buying $150 VCRs - let alone cars. Any cars. It is the worst market for new cars in decades, maybe ever. And it is not going to get better anytime soon. Certainly not within the next year or two. GM can't afford to carry Camaro that long, hoping things will turn around. When it comes handout time, do you suppose Congress (and the taxpayers who will get the bill) are going to tolerate GM building frivolous wastrel such as Camaro?

And even if these lethal problems could be disappeared, we have the almost certain bum's rush to a 40 mpg "fleet average" fuel economy standard that will be imposed by the Obama administration and a Democrat-controlled Congress. Despite being completely at odds with the working man constituency of the Democratic Party, inside-the-Beltway pressure to impose fuel economy standards is all but overwhelming. Passage is certain. And the only way a four hundred horsepower V-8 Camaro will come close to meeting a 40 mpg standard is by dropping it down an elevator shaft - with its engine turned off. Even the V-6 version isn't going make the cut.

Very likely, neither will the entire industry. We may not have one at all come this time next year. Camaro's just going to be one of the first to fall. The fact that it's sad doesn't make it any less real. That's the way the ball bounces, unfortunately.

========

www.ericpetersautos.com or EPeters952@aol.com for comments.