Once you're vaccinated, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have officially OK'd having friends over for dinner if they're vaccinated, too. The guidelines also say that once vaccinated, you can have a mask-less, indoor hangout even if your guests aren't vaccinated, as long as you're gathering with people from a single household, and no one in that household (or anyone they live with) has an increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19. In other words, even if you're weeks away from that first shot, you needn't necessarily wait to break bread with your vaccinated parents or grandparents.
It's something we've all been yearning for, and in many ways, it feels like the first step towards a return to normalcy. But what about indoor dining at a restaurant, where you won't be able to predict the vaccination statuses of other patrons and staff? The CDC guidelines don't specifically address this topic. They do, however, encourage everyone, vaccinated or not, to continue avoiding medium- and large-sized gatherings, and wear a mask and social distance when in public spaces.
In mid-March, the CDC also published a report that concluded, "mask mandates and restricting any on-premises dining at restaurants can help limit community transmission of COVID-19." It looked at 2020 county-level data from March 1 to December 31 and found that on-site dining was linked to an increase in case counts and death rates 41 to 80 days after reopening. While the study doesn't prove cause and effect, it adds to existing research that indoor spaces make it easier for the virus to spread.
Yet, this data was captured before wide-scale vaccinations started rolling out. Today, more than a million people a day are getting their first shot. Opinions about the safety of indoor dining after you're fully vaccinated aren't universal. We talked to experts across the spectrum to weigh in on the risks, and what would make them feel comfortable dining inside a restaurant.
Ask the experts: 'Would you dine inside a restaurant right now?'
The end of this pandemic finally feels within view, but some experts would like to see the country get closer to herd immunity before returning to indoor dining. Herd immunity is considered to be achieved when between 70% to 90% of the country has been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 infection.
"The vaccines are very effective but they're not 100-percent, and we do have variants that are circulating and still being researched," says Darren Mareiniss, an emergency medicine doctor at Einstein Medical Center. "If our case numbers and our positive tests rates were significantly lower, let's say below two- or three-percent, then I might be more apt to eat inside, but the positive test rate in Philadelphia County is over five-percent, which is still pretty high."
On the other hand, some experts say you don't need to wait, given the vaccines' effectiveness, both in clinical trials and in emerging real world studies. This is assuming health department guidelines are being followed, like table distancing and mask wearing.
"I would feel comfortable indoor dining with a small group, and by small group, I mean one other person or family that's at low risk of having any complications," says Neal Goldstein, an assistant research professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University. "This is based on the effectiveness of the vaccination and the current minimal risk. And that's the fine line. I'd love to say that there's no risk here, and I can't say that. But there's minimal risk, and that's what we're going to have to deal with for the near future."
There's no doubt that once you're vaccinated, your risk significantly drops, whether you're headed into the grocery store or your favorite restaurant. To some degree, your decision-making will depend on your tolerance for the risk that remains. But there are other factors to consider, too.