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Booming Texas economy may usher in a Democratic win in 2020

Gregory Korte and Joe Carroll, Bloomberg News on

Published in News & Features

"I wouldn't hold my breath for Latino turnout of eligible voters to match that of whites," said Texeira, "but the potential is there to close that gap significantly."

A Dallas Morning News poll in August had Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders each beating Trump in Texas by 2 percentage points, inside the poll's 3-point margin of error.

A Democratic win in Texas would fundamentally redraw the electoral map. With 28 electoral votes, it's worth as much as Pennsylvania and Ohio combined.

And Texas's importance as a battleground state will only increase in 2024. Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan are each expected to lose an electoral vote after the political map is redrawn after the 2020 census; Texas is likely to gain three.

"I view it as more permanently purple than eventually blue. I see Texas in the future more like we see Florida and maybe Georgia," Rottinghaus said. "But I think the short answer is that yes, Texas is going to be competitive."

 

(With assistance from Emma Kinery and Jacqueline Gu. Korte reported from Washington and Carroll from Houston.)

(c)2019 Bloomberg News

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