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The Big 5-0
Susan Estrich
He hit it this week. The big 5-0. No, I'm not referring to the age --
an age that, whatever anyone says, is not the new 30. It's still 50.
It's something no one I know looks forward to unless they are ill and
afraid they won't make it that far.
The big 5-0 in politics is different. Fifty-percent means that you have, at least at that moment, in that snapshot, assuming the polls are accurate, made the sale. It means that all you have to do is hang on to the people who are already with you, rather than persuade new ones, and you win.
Barack Obama hit the big 5-0 in two major polls this week. In both the Rasmussen Reports (Thursday) and the Gallup daily tracking (Tuesday) polls, he made it to a majority. It doesn't mean -- to quote Peggy Noonan, who now says it wasn't what she meant -- "it's over" for McCain. It doesn't mean it's time for the Obama gang to pick out their offices in the West Wing and start thinking drapes and decor. But it's still a major milestone.
Of course, the polls may be wrong. They might be overestimating the population of new voters and the number of African-Americans who will turn out. They might be underestimating the percentage of Americans who will tell pollsters they are voting for Obama, what for them may be the politically correct answer, but then vote McCain instead.
Even so, the chance that two polls two days apart are both wrong in the same way is at least slightly less than the chance that any single one is. And even if they're off, they still depict an unmistakable trend. It's a little like your old bathroom scale. It may be high or it may be low; the absolute number it registers may not be the same one you'd get in the doctor's office. But if you climb on it every day religiously, or once a week at the same time and day, you're going to know for darn certain in which direction you're heading.
Obama is heading up.
That Obama reached 50 percent is significant, but that he has reached it in the middle -- or even at the end -- of the Republican convention is even more significant. What it tells me is that this Republican convention is not working the way successful Republican conventions of the past have. It has not turned into a four-day prime-time negative ad against Obama. It has not been one speech after another making the case that McCain is qualified and Obama is not, that McCain can face up to Putin and Obama cannot, that Obama will raise your taxes and McCain will not -- with the few Democrats who are scurrying around St. Paul or hanging out at satellite studios scrambling to rebut the charges.
Instead, it has been a four-day discussion of hurricanes: first, Hurricane Gustav, but more prominently and more troublingly for Republicans, a four-day discussion of the Palin storm. The question that has dominated every conversation is not whether Obama is qualified but whether Palin is, and what McCain's choice of her says about him.
You can argue that the Republican base is energized, and maybe they are. You can argue that many in the media have been unfair to Palin, and surely they have been. But when you give the press four days to do the kind of digging and dishing that they have had 19 months to do with Obama and 19 years to do with Clinton, and even more with both Biden and McCain, it's bound to be messy.
You can attack the media, as the McCain camp has begun to do, but that doesn't mean they will back off. Far from it. When the media are attacked, they (to the extent there is a "they" anymore, as opposed to thousands of separate he's and she's) are more likely to come back shooting than to respond with apologies. And they aren't on the ballot; McCain and Palin are.
But whatever argument you make, the numbers are telling. In the last two days of nonstop Republican coverage, Obama has hit 50 percent for the first time. His support is going up while McCain's is going down -- during McCain's own convention.
That is certainly not the script they had in mind when they announced the choice of Sarah Palin last week. They took charge of the conversation, all right, but it has not been the one they were hoping to have.
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To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Copyright 2008 Creators Syndicate Inc.
This news arrived on: 09/05/2008
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Posted Comments:
09-13-2008 20:09
MaryE wrote:
Obama
He is a mullato--he won't even tell the truth about his beginnings how can he be trusted on other things?
09-09-2008 23:27
GOD'S PLAN ISN'T BUSH'S PLAN wrote:
AN UPDATE ON RECENT POSTS
TEXAS KATIE=RIGHT ON! crone=they polled independ.(like me)& added them to democrats. JOE=YOU'RE RIGHT ABOUT THE CORP. TAXES BUT I DIDN'T SEE THE RIGHT WING CONGRESS SHUT DOWN THE DEPT. OF EDUCATION OR ANY OTHER GOV. AGENCY THAT THEY PROMISED VOTERS IN THE PAST. THEY'RE PROVEN LIARS SPENDING MATTERS & ONLY A FOOL WOULD BELIEVE MCCAIN/PALIN WOULD CUT THE BUDGET 25%-50% IN THEIR FIRST TERM. sunshine49=that's stupid to say the only 2 reasons to vote for obama is that he is black.he's interracial=half white remember?i've seen what 6 years of right-wing executive experience can do to an american city. remember new orleans & it's death toll? horrible.bush had 11 years executive experience at the time.5 as "president" & 6 as "governor" of a hurricane prone state.experience isn't everything or in bush's case ANYTHING!obama has a clinton era economics plan that's attracted voters like me. also he want's to stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship u.s. jobs overseas.i consider this act economic treason & bush,mccain & it's other supporters should be tried for that very crime. i can't believe people say our jobs are leaving & never coming back. why would anyone bring them back when they are given tax breaks to ship them abroad? i know there are other factors but really how can anyone in the right-wing say they are pro-american & support this dumb policy? it's economic suicide for the poor & middle-class endorsed by the right-wing. pittbull=you're always a dummy in all your posts & this one is no different. the democrat party as a whole believes in god. they're not a majority atheist party which it seem you are implying!they do a better job respecting different spiritual beliefs than the republicans. i'm not a democrat but i will be voting obama/biden in nov. & i'm religious. ALESTERP=I AGREE WITH YOUR ENTIRE LETTER.THANKS FOR POSTING IT.
09-09-2008 14:21
Texas Katie wrote:
Cavewoman Palin
No way, No how, No McCain, No Cavewoman!
09-08-2008 09:20
AlesterP wrote:
The Big 5-0
I can't believe anyone would buy into the McCain/Palin 'change' campaign. It's a shame that so many Americans still believe that electing the same type of Stepford Republicans over-and-over again would bring a change to American politics. Anytime you do the same thing over-and-over again and expect a different result--it's insane. I'm beginning to believe that some Americans are suffering from insanity if they believe McCain/Palin would be 'change'. What and who is it that some American's fear? I really think this close race has to do with the great racial divide in this country. I want a drastic change in the way our government has been run over the last 8 years. I want a President who is in touch with most, sensible hard working Americans who don't have 7 houses. I want a party that stands by their standard and not a party who is now using a 17 year old un-married pregnant girl as the poster child for their Republican party because her mother is the VP selection. My how the Republicans adjust their values to suit their politics. Isn't the Republican party the party of the moral right? Is this the change America needs? Change your values when needed? I'm convinced now more than ever, that the more I see how the Republicans use their values to suit their purposes and politics, more I'm decided on voting the Democratic ticket in November. No thank you McCain/Palin...I just can't take another 4 years of Bush economics, lies, wars, deaths!
09-06-2008 23:05
sassy wrote:
polls
There are lots of polls being taken on this race.All the polls that I have taken you can get the results.So fare only 1 out of 6 were giving Obama the lead.The media are just trying to get Obama elected becouse he is black and it will make a good story when he falles to do his job.
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