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The Other Forty Percent
Susan Estrich
Everyone knows what the "right" answer is to the question of whether
you would be willing to vote for an African-American for president.
The "right" answer is yes. What's surprising is not how many people
say yes, but how many don't. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll
taken last week, 78 percent of all Americans said yes to that
question, leaving 22 percent admitting either that they would not be
willing to vote for an African-American (11 percent) or aren't sure
(the other 11 percent).
Of course, since everyone knows what the "right" answer is, if you really want to know how much race matters, you don't ask people what they'd be willing to do; you ask them about their family, friends and co-workers. The question is not whether you are what most of us would consider to be a racist, but whether other people you know are. Easier to admit that way. And that's when you get the most disturbing finding of the recent Rasmussen poll.
Knowing that you're supposed to say yes, knowing that political correctness, not to mention evenhandedness and fairness, counsel that the answer to your willingness to vote for an African-American is supposed to be "yes," 17 percent of white voters say that their family, friends and co-workers would not vote for an African-American and 26 percent more just aren't sure. Not sure if your best friends are racist? Nice. That totals up to more than 40 percent -- more than four in 10.
If four in 10 white Americans are willing to admit to a pollster that their friends, family and co-workers might not vote for an African-American because of his race, how many really hold that view? More.
Now maybe, given the current political situation, when people hear the question, they believe it really means: Are you willing to vote for Barack Obama? Maybe all those people saying "no" or "not sure" would be giving a different answer if the Republican Party were about to nominate Colin Powell. Maybe some of this is about Obama, and not about race per se.
Or maybe not. In any event, it doesn't matter. Obama is the one who's running, and to anyone who thinks racism is part of our history and not our current reality, look again.
Right now, Obama is running well behind the generic Democrat, and McCain is running well ahead of the generic Republican. That means when people are asked about supporting Democrats for Congress, the generic Democrat for Congress does as well as 15 points better than the real-life Democratic candidate for president. It means McCain does better than the Republican brand, maybe because people like him more than they do Republicans generally, or maybe because they like Obama less than they do Democrats generally. Either way, it spells a major challenge.
There is a long tradition of people lying to pollsters about their support for African-American candidates. Remember California Gov. Tom Bradley? Not. He was way ahead in every poll, right up to and including election day. The only one he lost was the secret ballot that actually counted. We saw the same phenomenon in a number of pre-primary and exit polls in big states this year, where Obama was supposed to be closing the gap, or even taking the lead, and then lost in the actual balloting to Hillary Clinton by comfortable margins. It got to the point that I started ignoring the warning lights on the Drudge Report on primary Tuesdays at 5 p.m., showing contests that Hillary ended up winning comfortably to be too close to call. They weren't. People were just lying.
Obama is who he is. He can run a campaign that transcends race; he can reach out to white voters; he can keep away from his former pastor and his former church. But he can't change his race and he shouldn't try. Nor can he change, in a mere five months, racial prejudices that are so deeply ingrained that four in 10 white voters aren't even embarrassed enough to lie about them. Still, no candidate wants to be in the position where you have to win the votes of every person -- or even five out of six of them -- who might consider voting for you. That's too little room for disagreement. It's why high negatives are such a problem.
At the end of the day, for better and for worse, what most voters care about is themselves, their own lives and their families. Obama's challenge is not to convince them to change their minds about race, or racism, but to put themselves first. With the price of gas approaching five dollars, unemployment at record highs, the war dragging on and the housing market slumping, taking race into account might just be a luxury that less well-off Americans, who are the ones most likely to do it, simply can't afford.
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To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Copyright 2008 Creators Syndicate Inc.
This news arrived on: 06/11/2008
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Posted Comments:
06-12-2008 17:52
Nancy wrote:
The Other 40 Percent
Obama got away with saying things about guns and Bible toting Pennsylvanians. He is suppost to be an educated Democrat...Blacks, or other minorities, can say anything about whites and get away with it! If whites say anything negative about any minority, especially blacks, they get fired or ridiculed. Your right, no one will admit it, since the consequences are such as they are.
06-12-2008 17:32
Kevin wrote:
Voters
I hope you racists get mccain...i really do..........
06-12-2008 16:43
crone wrote:
Obama
Of course people are going to be politically correct and say they would vote for a black man, but in their heart they know they wouldn't vote for THAT black man, but to "make nice" they are not going to speak their mind. What goes on in the polling booth has nothing to do with what people might say just to refrain from apprearing racist.
06-12-2008 14:00
Brett wrote:
Colorado
We have many "leaders" who try to play race and economic class against different factions of the population for votes. The Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Strom Thumond, George Wallace, David Dukes type of politicians (Notice it is an equal opportunity pursuit knowing no political party lines.) have given us many unhappy memories of such tactics. Every one of them is/has been a racist, but have they all been identified as such?
Create an us versus them tension by demonizing and taxing those "evil rich," even though the Federal revenue numbers show that the "rich" (defied as any family earning over $100,000) already pay most of the income taxes. Were it not for their investments, we would be in far graver economic straits than Bush II has placed us with his failed economic policies and deficit spending.
Invent another enemy by savaging oil companies and proposing excess profits taxes, which will not produce more oil at a lower price in a world of finite resources and rising demand. It is the consumer who will pay that tax in higher prices. Be careful what you wish for in life, it might come back to zap you!
Candidate Obama needs to fear the truths being told about his untenable ideas for "change" as the ultimate qualifier or disqualifier of his candidacy rather than worrying about his race or trying to characterize many in this country as a bunch of racist hicks. Candidate Obama also needs to be willing to answer tough questions, rather than refuse to answer, or answer with platitudes.
Create an us versus them tension by demonizing and taxing those "evil rich," even though the Federal revenue numbers show that the "rich" (defied as any family earning over $100,000) already pay most of the income taxes. Were it not for their investments, we would be in far graver economic straits than Bush II has placed us with his failed economic policies and deficit spending.
Invent another enemy by savaging oil companies and proposing excess profits taxes, which will not produce more oil at a lower price in a world of finite resources and rising demand. It is the consumer who will pay that tax in higher prices. Be careful what you wish for in life, it might come back to zap you!
Candidate Obama needs to fear the truths being told about his untenable ideas for "change" as the ultimate qualifier or disqualifier of his candidacy rather than worrying about his race or trying to characterize many in this country as a bunch of racist hicks. Candidate Obama also needs to be willing to answer tough questions, rather than refuse to answer, or answer with platitudes.
06-12-2008 13:26
Tired and broke in corn ... wrote:
Sick of the media trashing white middle class Americans
I am one of the less well off voters you spoke of in the article. And from the way you speak about us I can assume you are one of the better off voters. Good for you. What is important is what you said earlier in the article. There may actually be reasons besides race that would keep some one from voting for Obama. I am so sick of the media lumping all middle class white voters into one group. That makes you all just as biggoted as the people you are accusing of that very behavior. Obama is the one who started trash talking about us in the first place and naturally you all fell in line. Where did all the free thinkers go? Think for yourself America. To hell with political correctness... do what is right for you and your family, no matter if that means voting for Obama or McCain.
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