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Trump, Clinton Tied in Polls: Were All the Wise Men Wrong?

From the Right / Michael Barone /

It was conventional wisdom among the political cognoscenti during most of the primary season that Donald Trump could not win the general election. The evidence seemed strong.

Over 12 months of polling from May 2015 to April 2016, Hillary Clinton ran ahead of Trump in 63 national polls, while Trump led her in only six and tied her in three. ...Read more

Clinton Policies to End Pay Gap Would Just Make It Larger

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Women, lamented Hillary Clinton in an April 2014 tweet, make just 77 cents on the dollar to men. As a presidential candidate she has repeated that lament again and again, updating the numbers, in line with government statistics, to 78 cents in July 2015 and 79 cents this year.

This injustice, she says, must be remedied by government. "Last time...Read more

'Ferguson Effect' Is Real, and It Threatens to Harm Black Americans Most

From the Right / Michael Barone /

University of Missouri at St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld has had "second thoughts." Like many academic criminologists, he had pooh-poohed charges that skyrocketing murder rates in many cities in 2015 and 2016 result from a "Ferguson effect" -- a skittering back from proactive policing for fear of accusations of racism like those that ...Read more

America Today Resembles 1910 More Than Postwar Era

From the Right / Michael Barone /

What's your benchmark? What is the historical era with which you compare life in contemporary America?

For many astute commentators on various points of the political spectrum, it is postwar America, the two decades after the United States and its allies won World War II and before Lyndon Johnson sent half a million U.S. troops to Vietnam.

...Read more

Will the Trump Nomination Change Our Polarized Partisan Patterns?

From the Right / Michael Barone /

An irresistible force meets an immoveable object.

The irresistible force is the sense of discontent with how things have been going during this young century. Americans are displeased with a sluggish economy that fell into a deep recession and with foreign policies that seem to have produced disappointing results.

The immoveable object is the ...Read more

Looking Back on the Two Cuban-American Also-Rans

From the Right / Michael Barone /

John Quincy Adams, our greatest secretary of state (sorry, Hillary Clinton fans), thought that Cuba would inevitably become part of the United States. It hasn't, at least not yet, but two Cuban-Americans were serious presidential contenders this year.

Yes, neither Marco Rubio nor Ted Cruz won the Republican nomination, instead suspending their ...Read more

Can Trump Disrupt the General Election as He Did the Primaries?

From the Right / Michael Barone /

So Republicans now have a presumptive nominee -- one headed to a clear delegate majority without visible opposition -- sooner than the Democrats. It's another way in which this year's presidential race has defied expectations and ignored precedent.

Donald Trump will now have 10 months to stage-manage his Cleveland convention, while Hillary ...Read more

Republicans Should Have Adopted Democrats' Rules -- and Vice Versa

From the Right / Michael Barone /

The unexpected successes, forecast by almost no one 12 months ago, of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in winning 40 percent and 42 percent in Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses is widely taken as evidence of raging discontent among American voters.

There's something to that. But Trump's better-than-even chance of winning the ...Read more

Donald Trump Isn't the 'Presumptive Nominee' -- Not Yet, Anyway

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Donald Trump has declared himself, after following up his New York win April 19 with victories in five other Northeastern states Tuesday, the "presumptive nominee" of the Republican Party. Is it a done deal?

Not quite. Trump's 40 percent of total primary votes so far have yielded him 48 percent of pledged delegates -- not exactly the unfair ...Read more

Ethnicity Still Matters in the Politics of 2016

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Ethnicity still matters. That's one lesson I draw from the results so far of this year's Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses.

We're encouraged to believe ethnicity doesn't matter much anymore; only race does. This is the implicit assumption behind the analyses that divide the electorate into four racial categories: whites, blacks...Read more

New York's Home-State Winners Have November Problems

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Home-state candidates notched up impressive victories in New York's presidential primaries Tuesday. Donald Trump topped 50 percent for the first time -- and handsomely, with 60 percent of Republican votes. And Hillary Clinton won 58 percent of Democratic votes in her adopted home state.

Trump's capture of 89 of New York's 95 delegates gets ...Read more

New York Exceptionalism and Donald Trump

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Noo Yawk. That's the state with this week's presidential primary, in which candidates who have spent time in New York recently are currently running ahead, according to polls.

Hillary Clinton, who as a resident of Chappaqua in suburban Westchester County was elected the state's junior senator in 2000 and 2006, leads Bernie Sanders, ...Read more

Donald Trump's Insincere Process Arguments

From the Right / Michael Barone /

"Gestapo tactics." That's how Donald Trump's recently installed campaign manager, Paul Manafort, characterized the Ted Cruz campaign's successful effort to win all 34 of Colorado's pledged national convention delegates at the long-scheduled Republican congressional district and state conventions.

"Today winning votes doesn't mean anything," ...Read more

The Tragic Deterioration of Washington's Great Society Subway

From the Right / Michael Barone /

If you live any distance beyond the Capital Beltway you probably didn't notice, but an important part of government in Washington shut down on Wednesday, March 16. That's when the Metro subway system's recently installed general manager, Paul Wiedefeld, ordered a one-day shutdown of the entire 117-mile system for emergency inspection of track-...Read more

Wisconsin Republicans Bid No Trump

From the Right / Michael Barone /

"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again." That's the first sentence in a Trump campaign statement tweeted out Tuesday night by the Washington Post's Robert Costa. It's also a strange way to respond to a solid defeat, reminiscent of the Monty Python knight who insists he is winning after both his arms are hacked ...Read more

Are Trump Voters Really Victims?

From the Right / Michael Barone /

What you hear when you listen to many fervent supporters of Donald Trump is that they are victims -- victims of globalization and trade agreements that have sent their jobs to Mexico or China. Victims of competition from illegal immigrants from Mexico willing to work for starvation wages. Victims of a Republican establishment that promised to ...Read more

Will Britain Leave or Remain in the European Union?

From the Right / Michael Barone /

On June 23, when Donald Trump will or will not have won the 1,237 delegates he needs to be nominated, voters in Britain will decide an issue as divisive as Trump's candidacy: whether the United Kingdom will remain in or leave the European Union.

It's not a decision that has attracted much attention in the United States. The Obama ...Read more

Does Social Connectedness Explain Trump's Appeal?

From the Right / Michael Barone /

How can one make sense of the electoral divisions in this year's Republican primaries and caucuses? The contours of Donald Trump's support and opposition don't fall on traditional lines.

There's not a regional division, for example. Trump's best states have been Massachusetts, Mississippi and Arizona. We're not seeing the divide between ...Read more

A Vote for Kasich Is a Vote for Trump

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Perhaps the most important results of the March 22 Republican primary in Arizona and caucus in Utah were numbers that didn't appear on your television screen, no matter how late you stayed up for the poll closing times. Those were the numbers of votes cast for Marco Rubio in Arizona -- 70,587 of them at this writing.

That was 17,595 more than...Read more

Donald Trump Has 37 percent. Hard to Get to 270 Electoral Votes

From the Right / Michael Barone /

Many Donald Trump supporters think he is a slam dunk to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. The candidate himself certainly takes this view.

But Trump's analysis of current public polls is preposterous. In the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls, Trump trails Clinton by 6 points, 47 to 41 percent. Ted Cruz, in contrast, ...Read more

 

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