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Trump's Tribalism, a Sign of Our Times

By Clarence Page, Tribune Content Agency on

With less than a month to go before Iowa caucus goers cast the first actual votes in presidential nomination race, Republican leaders and donors disagree over how to stop the candidacy of Donald Trump -- or whether anyone should even try.

They may not have much choice. Sure, Trump offers a walking example of how savvy about business doesn't necessarily mean you know much about anything else. He displays a hopelessly erratic temperament, a breathtaking ignorance about public affairs and an unsettling zest for authoritarianism.

But as damaging as his radical insult-dog rhetoric can be to the Grand Old Party's outreach efforts, he's the closest thing the GOP has to a strong leader these days.

Nipping at his heels, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz comes off to many as Trump without the charm. The freshman senator made a name for himself early by trampling over traditional Senate courtesies and customs to make himself hated by his colleagues, even in his own party.

I think a Trump presidency would be a disaster. But there also is a bright side to the uncertainty his bizarre campaign has brought: Unpredictability is how we know that, at least, we are not Cuba or some other autocracy in which election outcomes are a foregone conclusion.

Instead, I think we should look closely at what the Trump phenomenon is telling us. Polls and focus groups indicate the GOP, which has denounced "class warfare" tactics by Democrats since at least the Ronald Reagan '80s, is wrestling with an internal class war of its own.

 

Trump leads the Republican pack among women and higher-income voters, but he leads by much more among less educated, lower-income white men.

For example, in a Quinnipiac University poll days before Christmas, Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton beat Trump in a head-to-head decision by college-educated voters (57 percent to 33 percent). Yet Trump scored a statistical tie (43 percent to 42 percent) against Clinton among voters without a college degree.

Similar results were shown for Cruz, who scored a little better than Trump among non-college voters than Trump (46 to 40 percent) did.

A Pew Research Center analysis in October and a later New York Times/CBS poll similarly found Trump leading the Republican pack among women and higher-income voters but far more among less educated, lower-income white men.

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(c) 2016 CLARENCE PAGE DISTRIBUTED BY TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES, INC.

 

 

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