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Michael Barone has studied at both Harvard and Yale, where he was editor for publications from both colleges. He has also served as an editor for ...
Read more about Michael Barone.
Michael Barone has studied at both Harvard and Yale, where he was editor for publications from both colleges. He has also served as an editor for ...
Read more about Michael Barone.
Four Races Will Test the Strength of Obama's Majority
Michael Barone
Five days from now the voters of New Jersey and Virginia will elect
governors. Voters in the 23rd district of New York and the 10th
district of California will elect new members of the House of
Representatives to replace incumbents, a Republican and a Democrat,
who were appointed to positions in the Obama Defense and State
departments.
All four of these constituencies voted for Barack Obama 51 weeks ago. Obama won 57 percent of the vote in New Jersey, 53 percent (his national average) in Virginia, 52 percent in New York 23 and 65 percent in California 10.
Yet all of this territory was once Republican. Suburb-dominated New Jersey voted 56 percent for George H.W. Bush in 1988. Southern-accented Virginia hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. The last time the territory covered by New York 23 elected a Democratic congressman was in 1870. And the incumbent who is being replaced in California 10 won her seat by beating a Republican in 1996.
In other words, the 2009 contests are a reasonably fair test of the strength and durability of the Democratic majority that Obama and his ticket-mates assembled in 2008, a majority that was only made possible by gains in hitherto Republican territory. It is also a test of the capacity of Republicans to regain turf they have lost.
Yes, the character of the individual candidates and local issues can make a difference. But the basic issues in these four contests are reasonably congruent with the national issues now being debated in Congress and this summer in town halls across the nation.
The result in Virginia is not much in doubt. Republican Bob McDonnell has campaigned on transportation, education and taxes, and holds a wide lead in polls. Democrat Creigh Deeds, though from a rural area, opted not to follow the rural strategy that elected Democrat Mark Warner governor in 2001 and senator in 2008, but instead sought to use cultural issues -- a 20-year graduate school thesis of McDonnell's helpfully unearthed by The Washington Post -- to capture the big majorities Democrats won in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington in 2005, 2006 and 2008.
It hasn't worked. No one believes that a McDonnell victory will result in women being expelled from their workplaces and sent back to their ironing boards. Bigger things -- the size and scope of government -- are at stake this year.
In New Jersey, things are murkier. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's approval numbers are stuck around 40 percent, but he has used his wealth to pummel Republican Chris Christie with negative ads and hopes that independent Chris Daggett will steal anti-Corzine votes from the Republican. If Corzine wins because he is perceived to be the lesser of three evils, it will hardly be an endorsement of Democratic policies.
The situation in New York 23 is simply bizarre. Local Republican leaders nominated an assemblywoman who has been endorsed by the ACORN-allied Working Families Party and who backs the unions' card check bill. One of the Republicans passed over was nominated by the Conservative Party and has picked up endorsements from Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. He has raised money on the Internet and from the anti-tax Club for Growth. He's now leading in two polls commissioned by his supporters.
All of which highlights, in exaggerated form, the distrust of tea party protesters for Republican insiders and could result in a plurality for the Democrat. As William Galston points out in his New Republic blog, during Obama's presidency voters have been growing more conservative but remain disdainful of Republicans.
The California 10 results will come in last, and just about everyone will be astonished if the Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, doesn't win in this San Francisco Bay Area district. But many things are possible in special elections.
Both parties will try to spin the results seven days from now. But one thing seems clear. None of the Democrats seems likely to equal Obama's 2008 percentages in these states or districts. None may even come close. But Republicans may find it difficult to convert the increasing unease with Democratic policies into Republican (or conservative) victories across the board.
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Michael Barone is senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
Copyright 2009 U.S. News and World Report. Distibuted by Creators Syndicate Inc.
This news arrived on: 10/29/2009
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Posted Comments:
11-03-2009 17:37
JCE wrote:
I agree. But how do you suggest doing that? Voting partisan will only give us more of the same. At least Obama is taking on special interests. And would have even if Bush hadn't stole the election. Both parties promise change, but Bush left us needing more change than usual. Obama is giving us more change than we usually get. Unless someone like GOOOH gets control of congress, it will continue to be a bipartisan gang rape of the country at the behest of the oligarchy. Any solutions besides the ones I have offered?
11-02-2009 05:57
JK wrote:
So because one side receives more or larger bribes that makes the other side honest? As long as the American people are represented by crooks they will be robbed. Left or right a crook is a crook. I dont hate Obama I just see someone who if it had not been for GWB he would still be in congress colecting bribes with the rest of them. Its time to throw them all out of office.
11-01-2009 23:10
JCE wrote:
Of course they are. But not to the same extent. Go online, and look up which congress members own stock in the industries, which have family members working in the industries, and then look at the history of the contributions from the industry. What becomes obvious is that while the democrats want that money, it is the republicans who still have the most of it, and one main reason the republicans want back in before they lose their money. The lobbyists who were giving it all to the republicans for 8 years, while still giving a small part to democrats to cover their bets, are now only giving a larger amount to democrats only because there are more democrats in congress. Which fact is literally driving the republicans crazy. I don't defend democrats. I just admit the truth, the republicans are far more big business than the democrats, but only because they held the most offices, and are better at this nonsense. The desire is equal to both parties, the skill and expertise goes to the republicans. And like it or not, hate Obama or not, no one else has had the balls to take on the insurance companies, and get this far. If we had the republicans on the peoples side, we could really win.
11-01-2009 06:43
JK wrote:
Do you realy believe that the democratic congress is not in the pocket of the big business just like the republicans are? We did not get in this mess because only the republicans were crooks. Your posts make some sence untill you start with the democratic talking points. Their both crooked only out to line there own pockets. Obama came out of Chicago one of the most crooked citys in America. Then on to the IL state goverment one of the most crooked in the nation. And you expect him to change things. If you sleep with dogs you wake up with fle's.
10-30-2009 17:55
JCE wrote:
Considering the right supports the special interests, and the big business, and the left doesn't, but rather is against the special interests, and since Obama is fighting the special interests, and his only support seems to be the left, obviously the left doesn't have much of a propaganda machine. The right does have a powerful one. It used the baggers, birthers, deathers, and all its phony astroturf organizations, as well as Fox news and such to panic the people with lies, but I can see that the people aren't all that stupid. The people are still leaving the conservative and republican camps, and most people still want reform and the public option. The right wing expects to win this, but appear to be losing their grip.
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