From the ArcaMax Publishing, Dick Morris Newsletter:
http://www.arcamax.com/news/dickmorris/s-406321-396678
The convention floor was abuzz all Thursday with the news of the CBS
poll showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the
poll, conducted through Wednesday, couldn't reflect the impact of John
McCain's speech, or the full impact of Sarah Palin's late Wednesday
night. It reflected opinions only after the Democrats' convention,
Barack Obama's incredible speech, the Palin selection and the early,
Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.
That augers ill for the Democrats. The next round of polling could
bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.
First, the GOP convention managed to disprove the central premise of
the Democratic assault on McCain: that he is a clone of President
Bush. The Republicans wisely marginalized Bush to a non-prime-time
videotaped speech, and sprinkled disappearing dust on Dick Cheney.
The speeches, and the very fact of the Palin designation, repudiated
Washington and focused on how McCain is an agent of change -- this
ticket is populist, reformist, anti-establishment, grass-roots and
anti-corruption.
And McCain Thursday night made the point plain: "Let me offer an
advance warning to the old, big-spending, do-nothing,
me-first-country-second Washington crowd: Change is coming."
If Bush were the nominee, this campaign wouldn't suffice to push
voters away from Obama. But now that McCain has moved decisively away
from the administration, Obama's lost much (at least) of his advantage
on the issue of reform. Now other doubts about Obama could elect
McCain.
The turning point was the designation of Palin and the personal
attacks on her. By stirring up a storm, Democrats assured that Palin
would speak to 37 million Americans -- just a million fewer than
watched Obama's acceptance speech.
Anecdotal evidence already suggests that women may have a gut reaction
to the establishment's sexist assault on a woman candidate -- and
flock to McCain. They've seen him stake everything on this one big
move of turning toward a woman -- in direct contrast to Obama's
deliberate decision not to name a woman.
They've seen the media and Democrats gang up on her and do their
worst. And they've seen Palin stand up and stuff the challenge right
back down the establishment's throat. All this may have created an
entirely new dynamic in the race.
Now the Republicans must battle to underscore the threats this country
faces, economically and internationally, and that we can't let an
ingenue take over. They must capitalize on McCain's aggressive
determination to bring reform to Washington and to emphasize Obama's
inexperience and failure to grasp how to change Washington.
But it was McCain's gutsy selection of Palin that opened the door to
victory.
========
To find out more about Dick Morris and read features by other
Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators
Syndicate web page at www.creators.com. Distributed By Creators
Syndicate Inc.