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Pulitzer Prize winner Clarence Page began his career in journalism as editor for the Middletown Journal and Cincinnati Inquirer, and received his ...
Read more about By Clarence Page, Tribune Media Services.
Pulitzer Prize winner Clarence Page began his career in journalism as editor for the Middletown Journal and Cincinnati Inquirer, and received his ...
Read more about By Clarence Page, Tribune Media Services.
Dems Find Hope in GOP Chaos
By Clarence Page, Tribune Media Services
Democrats took it on the chin in this year's off-off-year
gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Since those are two
states that President Obama won last year, vulnerable Democratic
lawmakers in next year's elections are feeling as nervous as Glenn
Beck at an ACORN convention.
But the Dems can find a silver lining in the high-profile Democratic victory in a traditionally Republican upstate New York district. The lesson in that contest: National Republican leaders are taking the title for infighting away from the traditionally fractious national Democrats.
That's one important lesson to be come out of this year's contests. Here are two more:
1. The magical Obamamania that energized young voters, in particular, last year was historic but not easily loaned out to other Democrats.
2. Colorful extremists fire up a party's base and raise a lot of money, but moderate swing voters tend to decide who wins.
Obama's coattails were too short to give New Jersey Gov. John Corzine anything to grab onto as he struggled in vain to keep his seat. Exit polls show voters were fed up with high taxes and corruption scandals. Repeated campaign visits by President Obama, Mr. Change himself, could not save a governor who had come to represent a despised status quo.
Nevertheless, the even bigger loss suffered by Virginia's Creigh Deeds showed that it is better for a Democrat to have Obama by your side than out of sight. After failing to get anywhere by distancing himself from Obama, Deeds was delighted to have Obama campaign with him. But Deeds learned too late what Al Gore learned by spurning the help of Bill Clinton in 2000: Don't distance yourself from people whom your voting base still adores.
The possibility that the 2009 contests are a preview of bigger Democratic losses in next year's midterm elections puts a chill up the spine of vulnerable Democrats at a bad time. Party leaders need all the spine they can muster to pass a strong health care overhaul bill this year. With Deeds' demise in mind, Democrats would do well to remember what the late Texas-based columnist Molly Ivins used to say, "Dance with the one that brung you." The Democratic base expects to see a meaningful health care overhaul and they'll be even more turned off next year if they don't get it.
With that in mind, Democrats can find some hope in Republican disarray, as evidenced by Democrat Bill Owens victory in New York's 23d district. Party leaders anointed State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava to fill Rep. John McHugh's seat after he was appointed secretary of the Army. But she wasn't conservative enough for purists like Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Kristol, Sean Hannity and the Club for Growth. They backed Doug Hoffman, a self-described fan of anti-tax tea party protests and Fox News' excitable Beck.
When Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a 2012 GOP presidential hopeful, endorsed Hoffman, the race became a test of clout for the talk-show-driven, populist-conservative movement born out of this year's anti-tax, anti-Obama "Tea Party" movement and town hall protests.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich warned against dividing the party and handing Speaker Nancy Pelosi another Democratic vote in the House. He was jeered by the Palin populists for that, but Newt turned out to be right. I don't know if Obama had such a fight in mind when he appointed McHugh, but if I were him I would claim I did. Thanks to the tea party populists, the move bore sweeter fruit than Democrats had any right to expect.
Undaunted, Palin declared on her Facebook page, "The race for New York's 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010." Of course, in the meantime, a Democrat will be filling the seat and casting the votes. But the Palin populists seem to care less about winning campaigns at this point than winning arguments.
A better model for Republican success is provided Virginia's governor-elect Bob McDonnell. He beat Deeds by moving to the center, soft-pedaling his background as a Pat Robertson-affiliated social conservative and addressing practical issues like taxes and transportation. McDonnell didn't have to reassure his conservative base, since Deeds' negative ads ironically did that job for him.
As a result, attacks from his left freed McDonnell to run as an Obama-style centrist, not a Palin-style barnstormer. That's a lesson for charisma-challenged Republican leaders as they try to get back into power in Washington. The GOP's angry tea-party conservatives can raise money and whip up excitement in the discontented Republican base. But when big problems like jobs and the economy are at stake, voters care less about who's right or who's left than with what's going to work.
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E-mail Clarence Page at cpage(at)tribune.com, or write to him c/o Tribune Media Services, 2225 Kenmore Ave., Suite 114, Buffalo, NY 14207.
(c) 2008 CLARENCE PAGE DISTRIBUTED BY TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES, INC.
This news arrived on: 11/08/2009
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Posted Comments:
11-16-2009 14:44
Alfred wrote:
My say
I am in total agreement with Clarence, and I very well understand the DEMO loss of the State Houses in Jersey and Virginia. Moreover, following the delayed, and hard fought passage of a decent Med Care Bill eventually, in spite of the phony Blue DOG DEMOS whose only concern is a return to Office. I truly believe that the President's finest hour has yet to come, and will,
including his re-election in 2012.
including his re-election in 2012.
11-09-2009 23:48
JCE wrote:
While everyone is happy that the republicans are in the toilet, with no help in sight, it saddens me. If they did their job, we would have a chance. But they not only dropped the ball when in power, they are still fumbling. And with the blue dogs trying to be republicans, and the C St. family which has members in both parties trying to force a god government, like promising to vote for the health care bill in order to take away a womans right to have insurance companies provide abortions, and then voting against the bill, there is no honesty in them or the evangelicals. We will have to depend on the swing voters, moderates, and independents. The extremists, republicans, blue dogs, and such, have clean lost it. Hopefully, when the people think about jobs lost and the economy and deficit, they will remember Bush and his republicans, and not vote for them or the blue dogs.
11-09-2009 23:25
old cowboy wrote:
Dissarray
This party in-fighting--Palen, Beck, Limbaugh, etc against the moderate Republicans and the Blue Dogs fighting the rest of the Democrats--is great news for those of us in the middle. Perhaps the ultras on each side will manage to weaken the party system we have now enough we can get some honest dedicated people elected.
It may be dreaming but it would be nice to get back to government controlled by the people and not the lobbyists.
It may be dreaming but it would be nice to get back to government controlled by the people and not the lobbyists.
11-09-2009 22:53
wrote:
Does this guy really believe that Obama is a centrist. Obama is a liberal socialist or worse. He just lost all credibility with me. Also,if he even thinks that Scozafavva is even close to being a conservative, he is again mistaken. She votes liberal in just about everything. She even endorsed the democrat. Again, a 2032 page bill can not possibly be a strong bill, unless a person is willing to lose a great deal of freedom. This writer needs to quit watching the mainstream media and do his own research. We need true conservatives in office again, so we can try to bail out what the democrats are screwing up again. We had to do it in the eighties after Carter screwed things up. It was a true conservative that got us out of that mess, his name is President Ronald Reagan. We haven't had a true conservative since him, and the country has been going downhill since. Following the path we are in now may make the seventies look like a mild recession in comparison.
11-09-2009 19:56
Redneck wrote:
Your seeing it allright! This is a sample of what will happen in 2010! If----the demoncraps don't ruin the country first! They seem determined to permanently destroy America! Now most people are becoming aware of what "Hope and Change" really meant! No More America! The entire borrowable treasury transfered to democrat supporters! And thence to Switzerland! The intent is to do so much damage that even when the democrats are out of office, it will be too late to save the country! Remember Bastille Day!
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