From the ArcaMax Publishing, Clarence Page Newsletter:
http://www.arcamax.com/news/clarencepage/s-644057-950036
Democrats took it on the chin in this year's off-off-year
gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Since those are two
states that President Obama won last year, vulnerable Democratic
lawmakers in next year's elections are feeling as nervous as Glenn
Beck at an ACORN convention.
But the Dems can find a silver lining in the high-profile Democratic
victory in a traditionally Republican upstate New York district. The
lesson in that contest: National Republican leaders are taking the
title for infighting away from the traditionally fractious national
Democrats.
That's one important lesson to be come out of this year's contests.
Here are two more:
1. The magical Obamamania that energized young voters, in particular,
last year was historic but not easily loaned out to other Democrats.
2. Colorful extremists fire up a party's base and raise a lot of
money, but moderate swing voters tend to decide who wins.
Obama's coattails were too short to give New Jersey Gov. John Corzine
anything to grab onto as he struggled in vain to keep his seat. Exit
polls show voters were fed up with high taxes and corruption scandals.
Repeated campaign visits by President Obama, Mr. Change himself, could
not save a governor who had come to represent a despised status quo.
Nevertheless, the even bigger loss suffered by Virginia's Creigh Deeds
showed that it is better for a Democrat to have Obama by your side
than out of sight. After failing to get anywhere by distancing himself
from Obama, Deeds was delighted to have Obama campaign with him. But
Deeds learned too late what Al Gore learned by spurning the help of
Bill Clinton in 2000: Don't distance yourself from people whom your
voting base still adores.
The possibility that the 2009 contests are a preview of bigger
Democratic losses in next year's midterm elections puts a chill up the
spine of vulnerable Democrats at a bad time. Party leaders need all
the spine they can muster to pass a strong health care overhaul bill
this year. With Deeds' demise in mind, Democrats would do well to
remember what the late Texas-based columnist Molly Ivins used to say,
"Dance with the one that brung you." The Democratic base expects to
see a meaningful health care overhaul and they'll be even more turned
off next year if they don't get it.
With that in mind, Democrats can find some hope in Republican
disarray, as evidenced by Democrat Bill Owens victory in New York's
23d district. Party leaders anointed State Assemblywoman Dede
Scozzafava to fill Rep. John McHugh's seat after he was appointed
secretary of the Army. But she wasn't conservative enough for purists
like Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Kristol, Sean Hannity and the
Club for Growth. They backed Doug Hoffman, a self-described fan of
anti-tax tea party protests and Fox News' excitable Beck.
When Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a 2012 GOP presidential hopeful,
endorsed Hoffman, the race became a test of clout for the
talk-show-driven, populist-conservative movement born out of this
year's anti-tax, anti-Obama "Tea Party" movement and town hall
protests.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich warned against dividing the party and
handing Speaker Nancy Pelosi another Democratic vote in the House. He
was jeered by the Palin populists for that, but Newt turned out to be
right. I don't know if Obama had such a fight in mind when he
appointed McHugh, but if I were him I would claim I did. Thanks to the
tea party populists, the move bore sweeter fruit than Democrats had
any right to expect.
Undaunted, Palin declared on her Facebook page, "The race for New
York's 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010." Of
course, in the meantime, a Democrat will be filling the seat and
casting the votes. But the Palin populists seem to care less about
winning campaigns at this point than winning arguments.
A better model for Republican success is provided Virginia's
governor-elect Bob McDonnell. He beat Deeds by moving to the center,
soft-pedaling his background as a Pat Robertson-affiliated social
conservative and addressing practical issues like taxes and
transportation. McDonnell didn't have to reassure his conservative
base, since Deeds' negative ads ironically did that job for him.
As a result, attacks from his left freed McDonnell to run as an
Obama-style centrist, not a Palin-style barnstormer. That's a lesson
for charisma-challenged Republican leaders as they try to get back
into power in Washington. The GOP's angry tea-party conservatives can
raise money and whip up excitement in the discontented Republican
base. But when big problems like jobs and the economy are at stake,
voters care less about who's right or who's left than with what's
going to work.
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E-mail Clarence Page at cpage(at)tribune.com, or write to him c/o
Tribune Media Services, 2225 Kenmore Ave., Suite 114, Buffalo, NY
14207.