From the ArcaMax Publishing, Clarence Page Newsletter:
http://www.arcamax.com/news/clarencepage/s-347503-685002
Is it over yet?
Everybody seems to be complaining about the endless Democratic
presidential primaries. Sen. Barack Obama's supporters wonder out loud
whether Sen. Hillary Clinton will deliver a concession speech before
Inauguration Day .
Yet, as exhausting as the process has been, even for us die-hard
political junkies, the Democrats' long march has value. It has made
better campaigners of both candidates -- and taught the rest of us a
lot about them both.
It has exposed their vulnerabilities and refined their strengths in
preparation for the big general election battle in the fall.
Imagine, for example, if Obama had received the comparatively easy
ride to the nomination that Sen. John Kerry received after winning the
Iowa caucuses in 2004. The Illinois senator would not have had the
chance to show himself or the rest of us how well he could handle
unexpected crises and setbacks.
Same for Clinton. I have heard even some die-hard conservative Hillary
haters express begrudging admiration for her determination,
resourcefulness and fierce advocacy for her beliefs.
Who, for example, would have guessed that she would win the
endorsement in the Pennsylvania primary of the Pittsburgh
Tribune-Review, owned by conservative Republican Richard Mellon
Scaife, a financier of what she used to call the "vast right- wing
conspiracy"? Politics is full of surprises.
And Obama learned how quickly his rock-star popularity could turn
against him. His rapid rise to the national stage before most of the
public outside of Illinois grew to know him very well worked in his
favor before suddenly it didn't.
The primaries have shown how his strong appeal with younger,
higher-income and more educated voters concealed real weaknesses among
older and lower-income voters who lacked college degrees. Exit polls
show Clinton winning an overwhelming average of 57 percent of white
Democrats since the February Super Tuesday elections.
Clinton cleverly and aggressively painted Obama as an "elitist."
Despite having come from a more fortunate upbringing than he did, she
turned into a passionately populist activist for ordinary
"hard-working" folks -- complete with a rural accent that the suburban
Chicago native apparently picked up during her Arkansas years.
Obama responded appropriately, ridiculing Clinton at one point for
trying to come off like "Annie Oakley in a duck blind" to please the
gun-totin' voters. Yet he also seemed to rub shoulders more often and
more comfortably with a wider array of voters and towns. He moved out
of the big-arena speeches and into more small conversations in local
neighborhood coffee shops and basketball courts -- although he would
be wise to brush up on his game before trying any more bowling alleys.
Since his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, was as certain as
John Kerry's swift boat veterans to become an issue in the fall, it
was better for Obama to deal with the pastor's inflammatory video
sound bites now rather than later. The more Obama casts himself as an
opposing voice to Wright's excesses, the better off Obama's outlook
will be.
The long campaign also has helped both Clinton and Obama to get a
better idea of what's really on voters' minds. Obama kept Clinton to
an embarrassingly close victory in Indiana by challenging her on an
issue of real importance to regular folks: her proposed "gas tax
holiday." Obama attacked the idea, also favored by Sen. John McCain,
the likely Republican nominee, calling it a "gimmick" that sounded
good but wouldn't really save motorists money in the short run. It
would only cost them in the long run. He gambled on the good sense of
ordinary voters, which is always a risky proposition, but he
apparently won. That's encouraging.
The big question facing Obama and his party now is whether he can win
enough working-class voters in the fall. I wouldn't count him out.
Autumn is the big game changer. So far his ability to win
working-class voters has been held back by Clinton's big name and
influential friends in the party's hierarchy. Most of the Democratic
mayors, governors, county chairs and others who have supported Clinton
will be working for Obama, if he's the nominee. So will Clinton, if
she keeps her word.
And the party's battle-tested nominee is likely to face McCain in a
year that does not favor anyone with connections to the Bush
administration. McCain is portraying himself as a "change" candidate,
a theme that Obama has all but made his own.
Polls show race is a very real factor, but when is it not? The
Associated Press, for example, has found that "about 8 percent of
whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president." I'm
not surprised. I've seen worse. I've been around long enough to be
gratified that the percentage is that low.
Either way, if Obama is nominated, he needs to remember that some
people lie to pollsters in matters of race. He's already seen that in
some of the primaries. That's only made Obama work that much harder.
Thanks to the long primary season, he can work smarter, too.
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E-mail Clarence Page at cpage(at)tribune.com, or write to him c/o
Tribune Media Services, 2225 Kenmore Ave., Suite 114, Buffalo, NY
14207.