Business News - Economic Outlook: Mixed fundamentals

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Economic Outlook: Mixed fundamentals

U.S. markets bounced Thursday on positive, but unremarkable news, a sign that pent up demand was hovering in the wings waiting for a signal.

In part, the signal was distressing. The Labor Department said productivity shot up 9.5 percent in the third quarter, the largest increase in six years and 3.2 percentage points above expectations. Labor costs per unit, meanwhile, dropped 5.2 percent in the quarter, an indication production is making a comeback, while employment is not.

But economists are looking for signs the recovery has more substance than a one-time bump from the $787 stimulus package. As large as that boost might be, it could flare up and die down as fast as a magnesium strip or -- not to put too fine a point on it -- as fast as the "cash for clunkers" program that left automobile makers high and dry after a three-week bonanza in late July and early August.

Positive economic data has been rampant of late and markets have run up for the past seven months. Policy makers at the central banks of the European Union, Britain and the United States were not taken in, however, as each bank, in turn, left bank lending rates unchanged at record lows this week. As the president of Customer Growth Partners Craig Johnson told The New York Times, "the patient is out of critical intensive care, but is not in full-bloom health yet."

Among the positive reports, U.S. retailers reported gains in October sales, especially in luxury goods, as a comeback in stock markets has given wealthy customers a reason to spend after months of relative frugality.

The luxury market "has shown its first positive reading since May 2008," said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Sales at department store Nordstrom rose 6.5 percent in October, while Saks reported sales accelerated for the first time in months, the Times said.

TJX, owners of TJ Maxx and Marshalls reported a 10 percent bump in October, while Ross Stores said sales were up 9 percent. Sales at discount retailer Costco went up 5 percent, while Kohl's posted a 1.4 percent gain.

Investors will look at non-farm payroll data Friday, including earnings and hours worked. The Fed reports on consumer credit Friday.

Last but not least, the Labor Department releases the unemployment rate figure for October. The consensus forecast, amid all the positive news, calls for unemployment to increase to 9.9 percent from the current 9.8 percent.

Copyright 2009 by United Press International

This news arrived on: 11/06/2009

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